America: World leader or a lunatic on the roof?

Before U.S. President Obama has a lot of problems: a huge national debt, economic crisis, unemployment and impoverishment, the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Army alcoholism and drug addiction, obesity, the nation, the Chinese cyber threat, the situation in the Middle East that if they "stabilized", then in favor of radical Islam, sometimes "cold" clashes with Russia - that over the European missile defense, because of indigestible international laws ("Magnitsky Act" and Russian "answer" - "the law of Dima Yakovlev").



Eighteen months ago, Obama even invited to the White House, his former rival Mitt Romney and talked to him about the prospects for turkey U.S. global leadership. The details of the conversation to the press was not hit, but obviously, once Barack Obama turned to his rival, the former lead to the United States so far. Probably right, Ian Bremmer, often repeating his favorite thesis «G0»: zero global leadership. Which was not Putin's influential politician in the world and not Obama. And not Angela Merkel and Mario Draghi. In providing global leadership vacant, gentlemen.



As such, the U.S. is no longer the world policeman. Washington simply can not afford to pull this "strap". The fact that the key posts in the U.S. now appointed new people probably only underscores Obama's understanding of the difficult situation in which was his native America. She herself, who now have almost publicly abandon its role as world leader. This does not endorse Senator McCain, but Democrat Obama will not ask him.

Mr. President, a supporter of the accelerated withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, and a man who has not decided on an operation in Syria, although the back of his career Libya is likely to heed the forecast of the National Intelligence (NIC). This office, right in the spirit of Comrade Bremmer, paints the world in 2030, in which "no country, whether it be the U.S., China or any other major power, will not be able to become a center of regional hegemony."

In the analysis of intelligence analysts, four global trends: 1) the individual capabilities and the global growth of the middle class, and 2) the diffusion of power from states to the informal networks and coalitions, and 3) demographic changes caused by urbanization, migration and aging, 4) an increase in demand for products food, water and energy. Each of the four trends "significantly reverses the historical rise of the West." States that the "unipolar moment" in the history of humanity is over.

According to analysts NIC, multifaceted power of the U.S. suggests that even if China will overtake America in the economy, America still retain world leadership - though together "with other great powers." The argument is the following vague statement: "The potential for overloading the U.S. growing demands greater than the risk that the U.S. will replace the world as an outstanding political leader." Smart uncle of NIC simply frightening world that without him the U.S., the world will become very ill. Similarly, the government afraid of its citizens because, without them, the rulers and officials in the anarchy comes, everything will all destroy, kill and rob. These arguments need governments to continue to keep themselves and replicate further. With exactly the same purpose scare - but the entire planet - and the States hegemony. Well, or former hegemon, "... or the sudden collapse of the U.S. retreat from power, is likely to lead to a prolonged period of global anarchy" without "a stable international system or the leading force that can replace the United States."

What horror. But Bremmer G0 does not frighten me.

In fact, the world will be a number of regional leaders. Will soon become the most prominent China.

The OECD report "Looking into 2060: long-term growth prospects," said that in 2060 the share of China and India in global GDP will surpass all of the 34 countries which are part of the OECD, although now it is little more than a third. In 2016, China will become the largest economy in the world. He will remain a global economic leader by 2020. Until that time, the PRC will grow the fastest, and then forward welling India and Indonesia because in China the working population is decreasing.

America, too, is likely to remain a regional impact. Will affect Canada. On the EU. On Saudi Arabia to Qatar. On two of the Sudan. Influential, we must assume, will be Germany (or the EU under its control), Australia (the most prosperous state today), probably, India and Brazil. It is difficult to say how influential in the Middle East will be Turkey - most likely, it too will become one of the leading regional players. Also funny to think that Russia will eat collapse, as predicted its various economists, commentators and analysts. No. And she will be among the key regional players. It is today one of them.

All this world "figure" will go on existing chessboard, trying not to fall out of it. Party can be played indefinitely.

As for the "zero", which Bremmer, anyway, is referring to the former place of America, it is necessary to explain the numbers. Otherwise, say, propaganda. Yes, God forbid. That is propaganda, of course, without it, but ... translated to English.

January 8, 2013 «The Heritage Foundation» published an article Patrick Tyrrell and William Beach, which has been analyzed of the U.S. population receiving any help from the federal government.

It turns out that the number of people receiving benefits from the federal government in the United States increased from 94 million in 2000 to over 128 million in 2011. This means that 41.3% of the U.S. population is now "podsazheno" for federal programs. Moreover, experts believe, more than 128 million - this is an estimate based on the recently released U.S. Census Bureau report, which, due to the methodology of the study are likely to underestimate the true number.

Although very few Americans deny that the federal government should play an important role in helping those in need, it qualifies as a huge number of incredibly large, indicating that the tax money collected by those to whom they are not really required.

For example, Warren Buffett is a recipient of federal welfare programs. Of course, with his condition, he is not dependent on any programs. In contrast, other programs Americans depend almost all of their income, housing, health care, food and other needs, and are subject to classification according to the actual state. Others are dependent on public funding somewhere in the middle: for example, they need money for college. Therefore, it should be noted that not all of the 128 million people that benefit from government programs, in the true sense dependent on the government.

But here are some of the numbers:

128,818,142 people in the United States are studying at least one government program.

48,580,105 people use «Medicaid».

35,770,301 a pension and income from social security.

43,834,566 are «Medicare».

39,030,579 live in families where at least one person gets food stamps.

6,984,783 people live in subsidies for renting apartments.

2,047,149 people receive subsidies for higher education.

It is important to note that the above categories overlap: for example, a person can receive and rental subsidies, and food stamps. It turns out that the total amount to 128,818,142 people. Receiving assistance from at least one government program that is not true.

The authors note undercount in subsidies for higher education: of the 16 percent of people receiving food stamps. 2 million - far less than the actual number of those in need of help, since only 2011 students received $ 9.7 million people in the form of Pell Grants.

Analysts write about other likely understated. But the most important thing is that, even according to official statistics the growth rate of the people who receive federal aid, much faster than the overall population growth in the United States.

Number of destinations with in 2011 (128.818.142) 62% higher than it was in 1988 (79.592.924). Meanwhile, the U.S. population increased by only 27%. In other words, the number of people who receive help from at least one federal program, is growing faster in the two and a half times that of the U.S. population increases.

Moreover, in the period between 1988 and 2011 spending on federal government programs have increased by 180 percent. This is compared to "only" 62 per cent increase in the number of people admitted to the program and a 27 percent increase in population. That is not only more and more people are getting money for government programs, but more and more U.S. taxpayer dollars spent on each recipient each year.

As a result, we must recognize that most of the population of the United States has two types of income: 1) money that they or their families have earned, and 2) the money transferred to them by taxpayers through government federal programs. Consumers of the second kind are more than 128.8 million individuals, or 41.3 percent of the total population.

Moreover, according to recent studies, "Wall Street Journal", a dangerous turning point for the company will be achieved when the second type will be allocated about half of all Americans (49.1%).

So much so, the authors write that the U.S. national debt is approaching 100 percent of GDP. The government owes its own citizens 100% of all goods and services produced in a year. Congress would do well to remember that there is no "free" subsidies and incentives. Today, the government borrows from the pockets of future taxpayers money that passes to pay for the needs of current customers. What kind of American dream! Are future generations just get that put out other people's debts accumulated by the Presidents of the past?

Nile Gardiner, an analyst and political commentator, former aide to Margaret Thatcher, often appearing on American and British television, including channels «Fox News Channel», «BBC» and «Fox Business Network», asks the question: are these 128 million America may need to survive as a global power?

If the crisis Europe total savings, the United States does not just slide down towards trying to find a sustainable European economic style, but flying into the abyss at full speed. Nile Gardiner recalls that, in terms of state debt, America and here - on the road to financial ruin. Its total public debt, according to the OECD, has exceeded 100 percent of GDP, and the public federal debt is projected to exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2024. America's national debt, calculated as a percentage of GDP (109.8%, the data for 2012) now exceeds the total debt of the euro zone (100.6 percent), or individual in France (105.1 per cent) and the UK (105.3 percent) . Only Greece (181.3 percent), Iceland (124.7), Ireland (123.2), Italy (127) and Portugal (125.6) at the present time on this indicator "ahead" of the U.S..

Without a sharp change of course, says the expert, without deep reforms without significant cuts in government spending and tax cuts, and without a return to the former policy that encourages economic freedom, and does not prevent it, the United States will face a grim economic future. Implications for American leadership in the world and even to the future of the free world can be truly devastating.

Today's America is, in fact, is a politically ... China. With Chinese callous indifference to freedom, human rights and democratic values. Ship America, dominated by large state ideology, is drowning in debt. Country overly regulated, its population suffers from too high taxes and chronic unemployment. All this, combined with a weak military doctrine and unhealthy respect to supranational entities, is a natural nightmare.

Alas, says fellow Gardiner, the last president of the United States stuck in his denial of the obvious. And the report of Patrick Tyrrell and William Beach - another warning the U.S. administration. Sleepwalking in the White House, says Gardiner, - the road to economic disaster. Perhaps it is time to wake up?

Note that there is no single word in the article mate Gardiner (by the way, mostly living in Washington, DC) of U.S. leadership in the world or something like that. Probably in Washington was only one person still believes in the greatness of America. This is Senator McCain. But we'll talk about it another time.